UK Pub Market Holds Firm in 2025 Despite Outlet Decline, Lumina Finds

The UK pub sector is proving remarkably resilient in 2025, with a market value forecast of £24.1 billion, up 1.9% year-on-year, even as the number of venues continues to shrink, according to new analysis from Lumina Intelligence. 

While independent, tenanted, and social-club pubs are seeing outlet closures, the managed, branded & franchised segment is capturing over half of all pub revenue; despite representing just a quarter of sites. Lumina reports this sector generated £12.4 billion in turnover in 2025. 

Operators in the branded space are benefiting from scale, capital investment, digital tools, and premium positioning that help them absorb cost pressures better than smaller venues.

Lumina estimates the total number of pubs and bars will fall to 41,691 in 2025, down from ~46,000 in 2019, equating to around eight net closures per week. 

Still, revenue growth persists thanks to higher average spend per visit (£24.59) and modest increases in visit frequency (+4.3%). 

Consumers Embrace Premium Options

While beer remains the dominant drink, growth is being driven by spirits and cocktails, each gaining share, even as wine and cider decline. 

In terms of demographics, millennials are now the most engaged age group in pub-going, increasing their share of occasions to 19.7%. Gen Z’s presence is also recovering, rising from 11.2% to 11.8%. 

London has become the UK’s second-largest market for pub visits (12.7% share), thanks to rising urban demand, and now edges ahead of the North West. The South East continues to lead overall with 13.7%. 

Looking ahead, Lumina forecasts the sector will grow to £25.7 billion by 2028, with a 2.1% CAGR from 2025 to 2028 — led by premium formats, consolidation, sustainability, and digital transformation. 

Implications for Games & Leisure Operators

For amusement, arcade, and gaming operators, these pub trends offer key pointers:

Strengthening relationships with branded pub groups is critical as many are investing in premium guest experience and tech upgrades.
Digital integration and automation will become more important as pubs try to improve margins amid rising labour, energy, and supply costs.
Venue closures may open opportunities in certain locations, especially where pubs and entertainment converge (arcades, social venues, leisure complexes).
 

In a changing landscape, operators who align with well-capitalised, experience-focused venues may benefit most from the ongoing resilience of the pub market.

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9 October 2025

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